Tomorrow we get the latest numbers from the USDA in the form of the WASDE report. WASDE stands for World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and it provides key estimates for production of major ag markets found here and elsewhere.
In a nutshell , yield x harvested acres = production. Between sowing the seed and harvesting the resulting grain or oilseed, mother nature impacts both the yield and the harvested acres. Too hot, too cool, too wet, too dry -- all may have a real impact on the growth of the crop itself, and the ability of the machinery to tend to the crop throughout its life cycle and harvest the crop once it is mature and ready to be gathered.
Other numbers in the report provide a guide as to how the USDA sees supply and demand for a particular commodity. Amount of imports, exports, and food/seed/feed/fuel use are applied to the production number and provide an idea of how much of the commodity will be left at the end of the marketing year. This is called ending stocks. Increasing ending stocks typically means demand is not keeping up with supply, and vice-versa.
The report that came out last month showed a month-to-month increase in U.S. ending stocks for the "Big 3" - corn, wheat, and soybeans.
Here's how the average trade sees the report due out tomorrow:
Corn: 180.0 bushels per acre x 81.749 harvested acres = 14.721 billion bushels vs. 14.778 prev; US Ending Stocks approx 1.773 vs. 1.813 prev
Soybeans: 52.9 bushels per acre x 88.303 harvested acres = 4.676 billion bushels vs. 4.690 prev ; US Ending Stocks approx 0.898 vs. 0.885 prev
Wheat Ending Stocks: USA @ 0.958 bbu vs. 0.956 prev bbu; World @ 259.45 mmt vs. 260.18 mmt prev.
The report is expected at 11am CST.