Following up on yesterday's commentary: Here are the production numbers posted by the USDA, and my opinion of their short-term influence on price:

SOYBEANS: Yield @ 53.1 bpa vs. estimated 53.3; production @ 4.690 billion bushels vs. average estimate of 4.722 billion; US ending stocks @ 885 mbu vs. average estimate of 905; World ending stocks @ 110.04 mmt vs. average estimate of 109.9.

My TAKE: Numbers came out less than expected, but still big. With the backdrop of no movement on trade issue with China, bears are probably going to have the upper hand.

CORN: Yield @ 180.7 bpa vs average estimate of 181.8; production @ 14.778 billion bushels vs average estimate of 14.859; US ending stocks @ 1.813 billion bushels vs average estimate of 1.913 billion bushels; World ending stocks came @ 159.35 million tonnes vs estimated 159.2.

My TAKE: Numbers came out less than expected on average, but there was a prevailing thought that there was some erosion in yields based on recent weather. I don't think the lower-than-expected yield and resulting reduced production will have as bullish an effect on prices unless soybeans can stave off price pressure and stabilize. If so, I believe corn hold onto the gains and continue to trade within its recent range.

WHEAT: 18/19 US ending stocks @ 956 mbu vs average estimate of 959; 18/19 world ending stocks came @ 260.18 mmt vs average estimate of 261.2 million tonnes; Russian production @ 70.0 mmt vs 71.0 prev; Australian production @ 18.50 mmt vs 20.0 prev.

My TAKE: US numbers came out less than expected, and aided by Russian and Australian reductions. On balance, still ample wheat in the world but a case is being made that wheat does not need to probe into new low territory in order to stoke the demand fire.  

Contact me if you'd like to discuss.

Great trading,

RSM