Following up on yesterday's commentary: Here are the production numbers posted by the USDA, and my opinion of their short-term influence on price:
SOYBEANS: Yield @ 53.1 bpa vs. estimated 53.3; production @ 4.690 billion bushels vs. average estimate of 4.722 billion; US ending stocks @ 885 mbu vs. average estimate of 905; World ending stocks @ 110.04 mmt vs. average estimate of 109.9.
My TAKE: Numbers came out less than expected, but still big. With the backdrop of no movement on trade issue with China, bears are probably going to have the upper hand.
CORN: Yield @ 180.7 bpa vs average estimate of 181.8; production @ 14.778 billion bushels vs average estimate of 14.859; US ending stocks @ 1.813 billion bushels vs average estimate of 1.913 billion bushels; World ending stocks came @ 159.35 million tonnes vs estimated 159.2.
My TAKE: Numbers came out less than expected on average, but there was a prevailing thought that there was some erosion in yields based on recent weather. I don't think the lower-than-expected yield and resulting reduced production will have as bullish an effect on prices unless soybeans can stave off price pressure and stabilize. If so, I believe corn hold onto the gains and continue to trade within its recent range.
WHEAT: 18/19 US ending stocks @ 956 mbu vs average estimate of 959; 18/19 world ending stocks came @ 260.18 mmt vs average estimate of 261.2 million tonnes; Russian production @ 70.0 mmt vs 71.0 prev; Australian production @ 18.50 mmt vs 20.0 prev.
My TAKE: US numbers came out less than expected, and aided by Russian and Australian reductions. On balance, still ample wheat in the world but a case is being made that wheat does not need to probe into new low territory in order to stoke the demand fire.
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