Excerpts from the video (raw audio transcription):
Markets in a minute is a quick little hit on markets that I feel had some sort of interesting move on the day. We take a deeper dive into those trying to keep it to a minute or less per market. Today's five markets are going to be cotton, orange juice, crude oil, and then over the financials we have the SP500 and the long bonds - so let's roll up her sleeves and get started.
March cotton ended up about 165 lower on the day. Why I think it's interesting we've had 5 days in a row of negative candlesticks. Yesterday we came really close to making new lows for this swing but today we really accelerated to the downside. Global economic concerns are heightened lately and thus the cotton consumption side of that equation is in question. China is obviously a big player in the cotton Market and our issues with China right now in terms of the trade dispute is not helping.
The next one would be crude oil, today down to $2/bbl to about $46/bbl. As you can see we all know this Market's been on a pretty good slide all the way from 76 back in early October down to what we thought was a low a couple days ago. Some more follow-through today and lo and behold we have a new swing low $45.67. Latest crude stocks numbers from the EIA are still almost 5M bigger than last year and then also for the five-year average were sitting about 28M higher. In terms of supply quantity here in the United States, there’s plenty of oil. Relatively recently you've got this macroeconomic concern and this general slow down there which could do away with a bit of the consumption or least ding a bit of the consumption or demand-side for crude.
The next one we’ll take a look at is orange juice. Jan FCOJ has had a big slide in price from about about $1.70/lb about $1.32 in mid-november - had a bit of a bounce but then a slide down to 128 today for new swing low. That's an eight cent break from yesterday's close to the low today. Here in the United States we've got a pretty good recovery going on in terms of production so it seems there’s an ample amount for the US. Around the world there’s a bit of a shortage, but let's just say at this point it seems like there is ample amounts here in the United States and that's helping to erode prices.
If we hop over to the financials next for the SP500 and long bond. Anybody who is anybody who is watching any kind of news knows the market is on on a pretty good slide and today we accelerated to the downside pushing into new swing lows down to about 2440ish. Obviously if I bring up the Dow futures or the NASDAQ futures or the Russell 2000 Futures it's all going to be similar, so I’m just having to pick on one of them. With a feel like there's a global slowdown and some gleaning of expectations from the announcement of the FED pulling away 1 interest rate hike for next year, has put a little bit of chills down the back of the marketplace. The market fears that maybe the fed knows more than we know so maybe things aren't as rosy as they could be and we're starting to see a little bit of repricing of the equity markets in general.
The last one is the bonds. With the FED announcement yesterday we have a new swing high last night of 146-00. Taking away one interest rate hike in 2019 was a bit of a surprise to the market and we got a big pop yesterday. Today it was able to eke into a new swing high and then kind of fell back, so that’s a bit of a bearish close on the day. We'll see if this Market has much follow-through over the next couple of days.
If anyone would like to talk about how to strategize in these markets and maybe take advantage of an opportunity they might see, I'd be happy to discuss that with you until then we'll leave it there.